robot and it's reflection

The landscape of AI is rapidly evolving, triggering heightened anticipation of a new market boom. However, it’s crucial to acknowledge the recent transformation in market dynamics, where the Nasdaq and S&P500 were influenced by a limited number of stocks. While this shift could have been seen as a favorable development, an overwhelming surge in bullish sentiment raises concerns of a feeding frenzy.

A Fresh Perspective on AI: Unraveling the Complexity of User Adoption While AI is lauded as the next big thing, proponents often overlook a critical factor—the general public’s preference for simplicity. Presently, AI bots fall short of meeting this criterion. Users desire an effortless, user-friendly AI personal assistant. Unfortunately, chatbots frequently struggle to deliver satisfactory responses, leading to frustration. Though they occasionally offer insightful insights when prompted correctly, learning to effectively communicate with chatbots can be inconvenient and time-consuming. This archaic approach resembles a step backward reminiscent of the DOS prompt era.

Recent research indicates that only a mere 20% of individuals actively engage with AI models, and within that group, less than 5% genuinely understand their effective utilization. Consequently, significant investments by large companies in a fundamentally flawed product seem misguided. AI’s deficiency lies in its inability to accommodate human fallibility, hindering effective engagement with those unfamiliar with its intricacies. Until this gap is bridged, widespread acceptance of AI by the masses remains elusive.

Exploring the Chaos of AI Adoption: Unveiling Motives Behind Company Hype Amidst the buzz surrounding companies’ adoption of AI, the underlying motivation boils down to their desperate pursuit of profiting from the AI frenzy. Similarly, during the tulip mania, individuals primarily engaged in tulip purchases due to the influence of others and potential financial gains. Blindly following trends without understanding their implications carries risks. However, these moments of chaos also present opportunities for astute investors who exercise patience and seize the right timing.

Additionally, the rise of AI introduces a high likelihood of new contenders challenging the dominance of established players like NVDA. The fiercely competitive market, combined with the disruptive potential of AI, may trigger a deflationary battle within the semiconductor industry. In this war, only genuinely robust players, unburdened by hype and exorbitant pricing, will emerge victorious. Stories shared in this context already hint at the emerging competition. With AI’s increased accessibility, groundbreaking innovations only require sufficient resources and talent. Even if industry giants like NVDA retain their lead, their pricing power will dwindle under the force of competition.

AI Craze Unleashed: Balancing Defensive Strategies Amidst Overwhelming Optimism The ongoing AI mania witnesses companies shifting from cost-cutting measures implemented during the COVID era to extravagant spending, touting their incorporation of AI across product lines. Spotify’s fervor for its AI offerings serves as an example of this spiraling situation. However, this frenzy does not signify the culmination of the AI era; it merely hints at the potential conclusion of Phase 1. Subsequent phases will follow, marked by significant casualties and the potential elimination of certain players from the race. The true implications will unravel in Phase 2.

Therefore, adopting a defensive stance becomes imperative. It is wiser to err on the side of caution, temporarily exiting positions and reentering at a more opportune time than succumbing to arrogance and investing at current levels. Numerous secondary candidates, untouched by the initial surge, hold promising potential. Even if mistakes occur, acquiring these candidates at attractive prices remains a viable option.

Navigating Psychological Shifts: Mindfully Responding to Heightened Optimism Nevertheless, the significance of psychological data should not be disregarded. In an astonishingly short span of 28 days, the general public’s sentiment has transitioned from cold to boiling hot. Bullish sentiment, which had remained below its historical average of 39.00 for a year and a half, now stands at 49. Such rapid shifts warrant cautious consideration, adhering to the principles of mass psychology. Accordingly, positions held for longer durations will be closed, with the intent to repurchase them at a more favorable juncture.


Summary on Reflections on AI

In summary, the enthusiasm surrounding AI and its possibilities is increasing, but it’s important to take various factors into account. The recent upsurge in bullish sentiment and the hype surrounding AI may not necessarily indicate a sustainable bull market. The current state of AI technology, especially chatbots, fails to meet the simplicity that the general public desires. Difficulties in effectively communicating with AI models hinder their widespread adoption. Consequently, only a small fraction of individuals truly grasp how to leverage AI’s benefits.

Investing heavily in AI without addressing its fundamental flaws appears impractical. AI’s inability to consider human fallibility and engage effectively with a broader audience obstructs its mass acceptance. Companies’ eagerness to adopt AI may stem more from a desire to profit rather than a well-founded strategy. Blindly following trends poses risks, but it can also present opportunities for astute investors who exercise patience.

Additionally, the dominance of specific companies in the AI market is uncertain. The competitive landscape is dynamic, and the rise of AI may bring about disruptive changes and challenges for established players. A potential price deflation war could arise within the semiconductor industry, favoring robust players over those that are overhyped. New leaders may emerge, causing significant power shifts in the market.

Although the current AI frenzy might mark the end of Phase 1, subsequent phases are expected to reshape the industry and lead to casualties. Approaching the situation defensively and exercising caution in investment decisions is essential. Rather than being overconfident and buying at inflated prices, it would be wiser to wait for more attractive opportunities. Secondary candidates that haven’t experienced an initial surge may present better prospects.

Considering the rapid shift in positive sentiment toward AI, it is prudent to pay attention to psychological data and exercise caution. The sudden optimism within a short period raises concerns about potential market overheating. Adhering to the principles of mass psychology suggests a cautious approach, including closing positions with the intention of repurchasing them later.

In conclusion, while the excitement surrounding AI is undeniable, it is crucial to thoroughly assess its limitations and potential risks. A well-balanced approach that combines critical evaluation of AI technology with an understanding of market dynamics and psychological factors will guide informed investment decisions in navigating the evolving landscape of AI.


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